Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 17,777
2 New Jersey 15,937
3 Massachusetts 11,678
4 Rhode Island 11,171
5 Connecticut 9,776
6 District of Columbia 9,329
7 Delaware 7,139
8 Louisiana 7,025
9 Illinois 6,697
10 Maryland 5,777
11 Pennsylvania 4,858
12 Michigan 4,837
13 Nebraska 4,691
14 South Dakota 4,218
15 Iowa 4,211
16 Indiana 3,868
17 Colorado 3,549
18 Mississippi 3,390
19 Georgia 3,189
20 Virginia 3,133
21 Kansas 2,592
22 New Mexico 2,558
23 Washington 2,443
24 New Hampshire 2,426
25 Tennessee 2,381
26 Minnesota 2,290
27 Ohio 2,200
28 Alabama 2,182
29 North Dakota 2,161
30 Nevada 2,107
31 Utah 2,066
32 Florida 1,973
33 Wisconsin 1,872
34 California 1,853
35 Missouri 1,689
36 Arizona 1,672
37 Kentucky 1,589
38 South Carolina 1,559
39 North Carolina 1,511
40 Texas 1,511
41 Vermont 1,488
42 Arkansas 1,403
43 Idaho 1,301
44 Oklahoma 1,226
45 Wyoming 1,188
46 Maine 1,127
47 Oregon 809
48 West Virginia 783
49 Puerto Rico 729
50 Alaska 523
51 Hawaii 442
52 Montana 432

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Illinois 189
2 Rhode Island 176
3 Delaware 172
4 District of Columbia 147
5 Iowa 140
6 Massachusetts 130
7 Nebraska 128
8 Maryland 123
9 Connecticut 121
10 New Jersey 113
11 Virginia 104
12 Minnesota 97
13 New York 88
14 South Dakota 81
15 New Mexico 79
16 Louisiana 76
17 Indiana 69
18 North Dakota 68
19 Mississippi 65
20 Kansas 58
21 Tennessee 58
22 Pennsylvania 56
23 Alabama 55
24 New Hampshire 55
25 Georgia 50
26 Colorado 49
27 Arizona 48
28 Ohio 46
29 Kentucky 45
30 California 43
31 Texas 43
32 Michigan 39
33 Wisconsin 39
34 Utah 38
35 Nevada 36
36 North Carolina 33
37 Washington 30
38 Florida 28
39 Missouri 25
40 Arkansas 24
41 South Carolina 24
42 Oklahoma 22
43 Maine 19
44 Idaho 17
45 Oregon 14
46 Wyoming 14
47 Puerto Rico 13
48 West Virginia 7
49 Alaska 2
50 Hawaii 1
51 Montana 1
52 Vermont 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,411
2 New Jersey 1,092
3 Connecticut 876
4 Massachusetts 771
5 Louisiana 497
6 District of Columbia 495
7 Michigan 472
8 Rhode Island 436
9 Pennsylvania 320
10 Illinois 301
11 Maryland 299
12 Delaware 253
13 Indiana 240
14 Colorado 184
15 Mississippi 156
16 Georgia 140
17 Washington 128
18 Ohio 126
19 Minnesota 113
20 New Hampshire 110
21 New Mexico 110
22 Virginia 108
23 Nevada 107
24 Iowa 96
25 Alabama 91
26 Missouri 89
27 Florida 85
28 Vermont 84
29 Arizona 81
30 California 76
31 Kentucky 74
32 Wisconsin 72
33 Oklahoma 70
34 South Carolina 70
35 Kansas 61
36 North Carolina 58
37 Nebraska 55
38 North Dakota 52
39 Maine 49
40 South Dakota 44
41 Texas 41
42 Tennessee 39
43 Idaho 38
44 Puerto Rico 36
45 Arkansas 32
46 West Virginia 32
47 Oregon 31
48 Utah 23
49 Montana 14
50 Alaska 13
51 Hawaii 12
52 Wyoming 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Massachusetts 16
2 New Jersey 16
3 Connecticut 14
4 District of Columbia 12
5 Rhode Island 12
6 New York 11
7 Illinois 10
8 Maryland 9
9 Delaware 7
10 Louisiana 7
11 Pennsylvania 7
12 Colorado 5
13 Indiana 5
14 Michigan 5
15 Iowa 4
16 New Hampshire 4
17 New Mexico 4
18 Ohio 4
19 Alabama 3
20 Georgia 3
21 Minnesota 3
22 Mississippi 3
23 Virginia 3
24 Arizona 2
25 California 2
26 Missouri 2
27 Nevada 2
28 North Dakota 2
29 South Carolina 2
30 Florida 1
31 Kentucky 1
32 Nebraska 1
33 North Carolina 1
34 South Dakota 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Texas 1
37 Washington 1
38 Wisconsin 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Arkansas 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Idaho 0
43 Kansas 0
44 Maine 0
45 Montana 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 122,386 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 72,556 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 72,328 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 59,688 4 99
Lake Tennessee 42,759 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,588 241 92
Richland South Carolina 2,807 572 81
Pierce Washington 1,918 823 73
Orange California 1,210 1185 62
York South Carolina 943 1420 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Early Georgia 2,846 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,813 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,841 4 99
Nassau New York 1,819 5 99
Richland South Carolina 142 476 84
Pierce Washington 70 800 74
Davidson Tennessee 55 936 70
Orange California 25 1268 59
York South Carolina 18 1395 55

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons